Best Reading of the Day - Entry 0063 Decisions and Results

Are we as a society too results oriented in our thinking?

"Just get the sale."

"Just win."

What if you make all of the right decisions but don't get the sale or get the win?  Is that acceptable?  Do we think that way when we "Monday Morning Quarterback" things?

I believe we focus too much on results and a Bloomberg.com article makes the same argument using College Football as the backdrop:

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2013-12-04/when-the-right-decisions-go-wrong-in-college-football

This article uses an analysis of football as an excuse to tell some pretty good statistics.  Decision tree style analytics are an important business management tool yet we too often fall in to the pit of focusing too much on the result.  More importantly we should ask: was that the right decision?  All too often the answer is yes even if the result was poor.



Here is a snippet from the article:

The game was tied, and so Alabama should presumably have had nothing to lose when attempting a 57-yard field goal. Make it and win, miss it and go to overtime. Presumably.

... Alabama was facing:

• 36 percent chance of winning
• 64 percent chance of going to overtime
• 0.007 percent chance of losing

Even if you thought Alabama’s backup kicker had nowhere near a 36 percent chance of making the field goal—maybe you’re extremely pessimistic and only gave him a 1 percent chance—that’s still about 150 times more likely than having the ball returned for a touchdown. Again, the right decision was made even though it turned out wrong.

That’s the problem with percentages and averages: You can make the “right” choice when the numbers back you up and still end up with the wrong result.

Happy reading,

J.W. Gant